Prediction: Roger Federer will make a triumphant return to Wimbledon final
It's the match we've all been waiting for since the Wimbledon draw was released nearly two weeks ago: Roger Federer, easily the most popular tennis player in the world, set to face Andy Murray, the favorite of the Wimbledon crowd who delighted a nation with his drought-breaking title in 2013. FTW previews the blockbuster Wimbledon semifinal, set for Friday afternoon:
1. Federer leads the all-time series 12-11.
The two first met in Bangkok a decade ago, when Federer was ranked No. 1 and Murray was an 18-year-old ranked No. 109. Murray won the next two meetings, both when he was out of the top 10, but Federer has taken the last three, including a 6-0, 6-1 beatdown the last time they played in London, at the World Tour Finals in November.
2. They've played once at Wimbledon, with Federer winning the 2012 final, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.
In all, the two have played five times at Grand Slams with The Fed holding a 4-1 advantage. Federer won the first three meetings, each in the final (2008 U.S. Open, 2010 Australian Open, 2012 Wimbledon), before Murray got the best of him in the Australian Open semifinals in 2013. In a rematch one year later, Federer defeated Murray in a Melbourne quarterfinal.
3. Murray did defeat Federer in the final of the 2012 Olympics, which happened to take place at Wimbledon.
So even though the official stats say Murray is 0-1 against Federer at Wimbledon, he's technically 1-1, with his easy 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 win in that gold-medal match, a win that propelled Murray to his first Grand Slam later that year in New York and pushed him toward the elusive Wimbledon title in 2013.
4. There was a point in this series in which Murray led 6-2.
Before April of 2009, Murray dominated his rivalry with Federer, beating him all over the world, in Doha, Indian Wells, Madrid, Dubai and Cincinnati. But Fed won their Grand Slam final during that stretch and would turn it around starting in the summer of 2009, winning 10 of the last 15 matches.
5. Murray is only 1-13 against the Big Three since the start of 2014.
That was the year Murray was returning from back surgery, an injury that's clearly affected him game against his main rivals. Since then, Murray has a single win against Federer, Djokovic or Nadal, with the sole win coming over an ailing Rafa this year in Madrid.
6. Murray isn't really a member of the Big Four, not yet.
How can a guy who has the same amount of Grand Slams as Stan Wawrinka, has six fewer than the "worst" member of the Big Three (and 12 and 15 less than the two others, respectively) and has never reached No. 1 be considered on the same level as Federer, Nadal and Djokovic? The answer: He can't. Win at Wimbledon and maybe we'll talk.
7. The Brit is a very, very slight favorite to win on Thursday.
In what should be the second match on Centre Court on Thursday (meaning it start around around noon ET here in the States), Murray is getting 5/6 odds to win, compared to 11/10 odds for Federer. This basically gives Murray a 55% chance to win versus a 45% chance for Federer, with a few points here or there.
8. Predictions?
Both ESPN analysts calling the Murray match on Wednesday -- Chris Fowler and Brad Gilbert -- liked Murray to exact some Wimbledon revenge on Federer. I'm sure there are plenty of folks on the ESPN set who would go the other way. It promises to be an emotional match, with Murray going for his second title in front of the home-nation fans and Federer trying for his 18th (and last?) Slam title.
Federer is the favorite in every stadium he visits, except when it's Centre Court against Murray. Even so, he'll have plenty of support at Wimbeldon. He's dropped just one service game since the beginning of the Halle tournament while Murray has lost two sets in total at Wimbledon (but has never been in any real trouble). Federer should be fresher, despite having almost five years on Murray. But the pressure, which was squarely on Murray during their last Wimbledon meeting, should be back on Federer this time. Murray has his title. Yes, the weight of the nation is on him, just as it always is, but he can live off that gold medal and 2013 title for years. Federer knows his Slam chances are limited to, say, the next two or three Wimbledons and U.S. Open. How does that sense of desperation play? I say well -- until Novak Djokovic likely awaits in the final.
Prediction: Roger Federer over Andy Murray, 7-5, 6-7 (4) 6-4, 6-3
(AP)